Donald Trump has often pointed to the stock market as a measure of his administration’s success, but his rhetoric has shifted over time based on market performance and political circumstances. During his early tenure, Trump frequently touted rising stock indices as proof that businesses had confidence in his policies, such as tax cuts and deregulation efforts. However, around the midterm elections, stock market volatility led him to blame external factors like Federal Reserve rate hikes and political tensions with Congress.
The US-China trade war presented a significant challenge. Trump initially used market losses to garner support for his hardline stance on tariffs. The COVID-19 pandemic further complicated his narrative.
Despite initial market crashes, Trump maintained that the swift recovery indicated effective federal intervention and economic resilience. Over the past year, while President Biden was in office, Trump claimed credit for stock market rallies, attributing them to confidence in his potential return to power.
Trump’s changing market narrative
Conversely, he blamed market dips on Biden and Vice President Harris. Trump also predicted a market crash if Democrats won in 2024. “The stock market is, in a sense, crashing,” Trump recently said.
“This is Bidenomics. It’s catching up with him.” But he dismissed the current sell-off, stating, “You can’t really watch the stock market.”
This contrasts with his previous stance of frequently heralding market upswings as a reflection of his leadership. “Since my election, the stock market has set records,” Trump said in the past.
“Everyone is calling it the Trump effect.”
As Trump navigated various challenges during his presidency, his stock market rhetoric evolved to align with broader administration goals and external pressures. Initially a strong advocate of using the market to measure success, he adjusted his message when faced with shifting political and economic landscapes.
